Mammoth Blog

The only remaining regular-season Pacific-10 Conference game that has any bearing on the postseason destinations of Oregon or Oregon State will be played Saturday between UCLA and USC at the Rose Bowl.

A UCLA victory would push the Beavers into the Rose Bowl game on New Year's Day, and probably knock the Ducks out of the Holiday Bowl to the Sun or Las Vegas Bowls. How likely is that? Well, the Trojans are favored by 31.

Here is why that would be: If USC loses to UCLA, the Trojans, Ducks and Beavers all would finish tied for first.
Thomas Boyd/The OregonianMike Bellotti led the Ducks to one of the most meaningful, late-season victories of his tenure in the Civil War.

The Pac-10 then would go to its tie-breaking formula to select a Rose Bowl representative. The first tie-breaker is how teams fared head-to-head. Since each of the three teams finished 1-1 against the other two, we move onto tie-breaker No. 2.

This would be to compare each of the three teams to the next-highest finishing team in the conference. Assuming a California victory over Washington, that would be Cal. If Cal loses, Bears would tie the winner of the Arizona-Arizona State game for the next spot in the conference standings.

Oregon, Oregon State and USC all went 2-0 against the Arizona schools. However, while OSU and USC beat Cal, Oregon lost to the Golden Bears. Thus, the Ducks would be eliminated from Rose Bowl consideration. OSU and USC would remain tied, and the Beavers would advance based on their victory over the Trojans.

If that happens, the Holiday Bowl almost certainly will snatch USC. Oregon would then drop to the Sun Bowl. However, the Sun Bowl has a no-repeat clause and the Ducks played there last year.
Bruce Ely/The OregonianUO receiver Terence Scott scores a fourth-quarter touchdown as stunned OSU fans watch.

The Sun could choose to waive the clause, and probably would do that. But, if not, Oregon would fall to the Las Vegas Bowl.

That would be a bitter conclusion to a season that finished with the Ducks' stunning 65-38 victory in the Civil War. I wrote in today's Oregonian that the victory was the most significant in a late-season conference road game for UO coach Mike Bellotti since the 24-22 win at Washington in his first season. source>>>